Situated in California’s central valley, Modesto is known for its rich agricultural history and its central location to the ocean, lakes, the Sierra’s and Yosemite. It’s the birthplace of George Lucas and the inspiration for his classic 1973 film ‘American Graffiti’.
If you are thinking about visiting Modesto and have qualms about the safety of the city, we got you covered. We deep dived into the statistics, crime rates and talked to the residents of the city to give you a better understanding of how safe the safe the city really is.
Is Modesto safe?
(photo:Carl Skaggs)
Modesto is a moderately safe city as indicated by its crime rates, which are above the national average but below the rate of an unsafe city. In 2020, Modesto had a violent crime rate of 747.37 per 100,000 residents, which is 88% higher than the national average.
Here’s a scale to give you some perspective on Modesto’s crime rate
Modesto Crime Rates And Crime Stats
The most recent, complete set of crime statistics comes from the FBI UCR and cross referenced with the Modesto PD and are for 2019 and 2020:
Modesto police reported a total of 6,943 offenses in 2020, compared with 8,941 in 2019, which is a 22 percent year-over-year decrease.
2019
2020
% Change
Murder
13
16
23%
Rape
94
106
13%
Robbery
399
281
-30%
Aggravated Assault
1,252
1,200
-4%
Violent Offense Total
1,758
1,603
-9%
Burglary
1,149
706
-39%
Larceny
4,849
3,533
-27%
Motor Vehicle Theft
1,185
1,101
-7%
Property Offense Total
7,183
5,340
-26%
Total Index Offenses
8,941
6,943
-22%
Violent Crime Rate
In 2020 Modesto reported 1,603 violent crimes and had a violent crime rate of 747.37 per 100,000 residents. Modesto’s violent crime rate is 52% less than the national average.
Year over year violent crime decreased 9%.
You have a 1 in 134 chance of becoming a victim of violent crime in Modesto.
Violent crimes include; homicides, rape, robbery and aggravated assaults.
Property Crime Rate
In 2020 Modesto reported 5,340 property crimes and had a property crime rate of 2,489.68 per 100,000 residents. Modesto’s property crime rate is 27% greater than the national average.
Year over year property crime decreased 26%.
You have a 1 in 40 chance of becoming a victim of property crime in Modesto.
Property crimes include; burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson.
Murder Rate
In 2020 Modesto reported 16 murders and had a murder rate of 7.46 per 100,000 residents. Modesto’s murder rate is 15% greater than the national average.
Year over year murders has increased by 23%
You have a 1 in 13,405 chance of becoming a victim of murder in Modesto.
Modesto’s crime rate vs other cities in California (2020)
Here’s how Modesto’s crime rate compared to other cities in California. Modesto has a similar crime rate to Los Angeles and Sacramento.
Here’s a list of the top 23 most dangerous cities in the United States ranked by violent crime rates. Modesto’s violent crime rate is 4 times less than Monroe, Louisiana, the most dangerous city on the list.
City
Population
Violent Crime Rate per 100,000 people
Monroe
47,702
2,932.79
Memphis
633,104
2,418.24
Atlantic City
38,497
2,335.25
Saginaw
44,202
2,327.95
Detroit
639,111
2,248.44
St. Louis
301,578
1,995.17
Alexandria
45,275
1,877.42
Pine Bluff
41,253
1,808.35
Little Rock
202,591
1,805.11
Milwaukee
577,222
1,733.13
South Bend
103,453
1,706.09
Cleveland
372,624
1,689.10
Camden
71,791
1,632.52
Birmingham
200,733
1,577.22
Kansas City
508,090
1,558.58
Baltimore
585,708
1,460.11
Albuquerque
564,559
1,406.41
Chattanooga
181,099
1,382.67
San Bernardino
222,101
1,365.59
New Orleans
383,997
1,358.08
Oakland
440,646
1,347.34
Modesto
214,485
747.37
Areas to avoid in Modesto
According to residents of Modesto, the south and west sides are the sketchiest parts of the city. 9th Street also has a reputation for being a hotbed for illicit activity.
Is the public transportation in Modesto safe?
The public transportation system in Modesto is handled by the Modesto Area Express (MAX), which offers many routes that interweave throughout the entire city.
The Modesto Transit is generally a safe option to use during normal commuting hours (7am – 8pm), however we recommend that you use a taxi or ride sharing service outside of those hours.
Is Modesto safe at night?
Modesto is generally safe at night as long as you stay out of the problem areas listed above.
Be aware that streets and squares that are perfectly safe to visit in the daytime can be questionable and sketchy at night.
Is Modesto safe for a solo traveler?
Modesto is safe for all travelers, including female solo travelers!
If you visit Modesto alone you’ll be plenty safe if you practice common sense when it comes to safety (i.e. avoid walking alone at night, locking up your vehicles, and keeping an eye on your things belongings).
What do residents of Modesto say about it’s safety?
"Modesto is like any other city, there are good areas and bad areas."
"I have lived in Modesto for all my life and in a few sections of the city. I would have to say the “Airport” “West Side” & the “Highway Village” are the roughest neighborhoods."
"Stay away from the west side of town. West side to South side Modesto is really rough."
""Avoid the area around the airport and the west side, especially at night."
"9th street is notorious for hookers, pimps and drugs, stay away."
"Modesto has a huge auto theft problem.Don’t park your car in a desolate area. It will probably be gone by the time you get back."
"The south or the west side is the ghetto and its full of gangs and addicts. Downtown is borderline. There other parts of Modesto is chill and you can walk around anytime."
"Most cities are good places with patches of bad spots. To me, Modesto is a bad place with patches of good spots."
Tips to stay safe while visiting Modesto
Always be aware of your surroundings. When walking around the city, maintain situational awareness. Get off your phone and pay attention to whats happening around you.
Don’t walk by yourself at night. Take a taxi or Uber at night.
Walk confidently and with your head up and without distractions (smartphones, headphones).
Run away from situation if you need to. Hurt pride is temporary.
Don’t drink to excess, especially if you are by yourself.
Park in parking garage or in well lit areas.
Don’t leave anything of value in your car.
Facts about Modesto, CA
The population of Modesto in 2020 was 214,485 and is the 19th most populous city in California.
The city covers a land area of 42.97 square miles.
The median age was 34.2 years.
83.3%% of residents 25 and older is a high school graduate. 19.3% of residents 25 and older has a bachelors degree or higher.
The median income for a household in the city was $62,182. The per capita income for the city was $28,052.
12.4% of the population live below the poverty line.
The median home value in Modesto is $450,000 in 2022.
In 2022, the average rent for a Modesto 2-bedroom apartment is $1,500.
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